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Old 07-01-2008, 12:47 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Homefinder
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Default Spanish Real Estate Crisis | Falling Property Values in Spain

Quote:
Do you not think that the sellers that are serious have already dropped their prices?
here it seems to be on average between 17 and 25%
The properties with a substantial price drop are getting more viewings than before the market dipped.
I have started a new thread because this is a very serious topic.

Emma - Thank you for your opinion.
You are suggesting that prices have fallen by an average of 20% in your area and I would agree with that.
I operate in the Moraira area (Costa Blanca North) and would say that prices here have fallen by the same amount.
I don't think that we are there yet. My opinion, when this whole thing started, was that they had to fall by 30%. That was not only my opinion. I wrote an article quoting Blevin-Frank's opinion on that same amount.
Since then the UK economy, our biggest market, has slid a little the wrong way and, very important, Sterling has depreciated considerably.
25% or 30% might not be enough but, whatever, there is a point when it will all turn round and that is when buyers realise that it has gone far enough and they could be missiing out.
I have to admit that I don't have the overall picture and only know my own little area. During the 1990's crash, property values fell by 50% but during that same period the UK economy was a real mess. It is nowhere near that bad now so my guess still is that the "turnround" figure is somewhere around 30%.

This does create a problem for developers because we are talking about less than what they can afford to build for. However, they no longer control prices. There is now such a surplus of unsold resale property on the Spanish market that, to start with anyway, prices will be goverened by private sellers.

The encouraging thing is that there seems to still be as much interest as ever. To me that would indicate that there are just as many potential buyers around as before but they are not ready to commit yet.

You mentioned that properties with a price reduction are getting far more viewings than they did before. To me that would indicate that buyers are now extremely price-conscious and don't just want to "jump on the bandwagon" because prices are "going through the roof".
These are the one who will eventually buy but they don't want to see their investment lose value as soon as they purchase.

Just ask yourself if you would buy a property now. I think not because you know what it is all about, unless you were absolutely convinced that you were buying at the market price.

By the way, Spanish banks have decided that the devaluation has to be 40% (I cannot remember where I read that). We all know that banks never take any risks so the magic figure could be less than this.

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